03 — models
Modeller
Denne siden er live-inventaret: hvilken modell som er primær, hvilke soner som får LightGBM, og hvordan de scorer. Pipeline-design og evalueringsregler ligger under Metode.
Primærmodell
LightGBM
Soner med baner
31
LightGBM-soner
14
01 — zones
Sonedekning
Fra publisert soneindeks — ikke innbygde kurver.
| Sone | Primær | LightGBM |
|---|---|---|
| Austria | LightGBM | ja |
| Belgium | LightGBM | ja |
| Bulgaria | LightGBM | ja |
| Switzerland | LightGBM | ja |
| Czechia | LightGBM | ja |
| Germany–Luxembourg | LightGBM | ja |
| Denmark West (DK1) | LightGBM | ja |
| Denmark East (DK2) | LightGBM | ja |
| Estonia | LightGBM | ja |
| Spain | LightGBM | ja |
| Finland | LightGBM | ja |
| France | LightGBM | ja |
| Greece | LightGBM | ja |
| Croatia | LightGBM | ja |
| Hungary | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Ireland (SEM) | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Italy North | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Lithuania | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Latvia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Netherlands | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Norway NO1 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Norway NO2 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Poland | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Portugal | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Romania | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE1 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE2 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE3 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE4 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Slovenia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Slovakia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
02 — stack
Primærstack-kurver
Neste dags bane kun for primær budsone. (DE-LU)
00 — baselineSeasonal naive (168h)
Ukentlig kopi — hard bransjegulv.
€116.4
00 — baseline
Seasonal naive (168h)
Ukentlig kopi — hard bransjegulv.
€116.4
01 — baselineHour-of-week mean
Empirisk profil (ukedag × time).
€99.3
01 — baseline
Hour-of-week mean
Empirisk profil (ukedag × time).
€99.3
02 — primaryPrimærmodellLightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direkte multi-horisont-trær — primær multi-sone-scorer.
€113.1
02 — primaryPrimærmodell
LightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direkte multi-horisont-trær — primær multi-sone-scorer.
€113.1
03 — classicalSARIMAX (+ calendar exog)
Sesong-ARIMA på primærsonen.
€121.1
03 — classical
SARIMAX (+ calendar exog)
Sesong-ARIMA på primærsonen.
€121.1
04 — galleryProphet
Additiv trend + ukentlig/daglig sesong.
€115.9
04 — gallery
Prophet
Additiv trend + ukentlig/daglig sesong.
€115.9
05 — galleryLSTM sequence model
168t-sekvens → neste dag (galleri).
€131.8
05 — gallery
LSTM sequence model
168t-sekvens → neste dag (galleri).
€131.8
Research / portfolio demo only. Not trading advice. Prices via ENTSO-E Transparency (day-ahead).