03 — models
Models
This page is the live inventory: which model is primary, which zones get LightGBM, and how they score. Pipeline design and evaluation rules live on Methodology.
Primary model
LightGBM
Zones with paths
31
LightGBM zones
14
01 — zones
Zone coverage
From the published zone index — not bundled curves.
| Zone | Primary | LightGBM |
|---|---|---|
| Austria | LightGBM | yes |
| Belgium | LightGBM | yes |
| Bulgaria | LightGBM | yes |
| Switzerland | LightGBM | yes |
| Czechia | LightGBM | yes |
| Germany–Luxembourg | LightGBM | yes |
| Denmark West (DK1) | LightGBM | yes |
| Denmark East (DK2) | LightGBM | yes |
| Estonia | LightGBM | yes |
| Spain | LightGBM | yes |
| Finland | LightGBM | yes |
| France | LightGBM | yes |
| Greece | LightGBM | yes |
| Croatia | LightGBM | yes |
| Hungary | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Ireland (SEM) | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Italy North | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Lithuania | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Latvia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Netherlands | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Norway NO1 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Norway NO2 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Poland | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Portugal | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Romania | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE1 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE2 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE3 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Sweden SE4 | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Slovenia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
| Slovakia | Seasonal naive | baseline |
02 — stack
Primary stack curves
Next-day path on the primary bidding zone only. (DE-LU)
00 — baselineSeasonal naive (168h)
Weekly copy — hard industry floor.
€116.4
00 — baseline
Seasonal naive (168h)
Weekly copy — hard industry floor.
€116.4
01 — baselineHour-of-week mean
Empirical (weekday × hour) profile.
€99.3
01 — baseline
Hour-of-week mean
Empirical (weekday × hour) profile.
€99.3
02 — primaryPrimary modelLightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direct multi-horizon trees — primary multi-zone scorer.
€113.1
02 — primaryPrimary model
LightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direct multi-horizon trees — primary multi-zone scorer.
€113.1
03 — classicalSARIMAX (+ calendar exog)
Seasonal ARIMA core on the primary zone.
€121.1
03 — classical
SARIMAX (+ calendar exog)
Seasonal ARIMA core on the primary zone.
€121.1
04 — galleryProphet
Additive trend + weekly/daily seasonality.
€115.9
04 — gallery
Prophet
Additive trend + weekly/daily seasonality.
€115.9
05 — galleryLSTM sequence model
168h sequence → next-day path (gallery).
€131.8
05 — gallery
LSTM sequence model
168h sequence → next-day path (gallery).
€131.8
Research / portfolio demo only. Not trading advice. Prices via ENTSO-E Transparency (day-ahead).