03 — models
Models
What is shown for each bidding zone: primary model, coverage, and the latest paths.
Primary model
LightGBM
Zones with paths
31
LightGBM zones
31
01 — zones
Zone coverage
Bidding zones with a published path on Sol px.
| Zone | Primary | LightGBM |
|---|---|---|
| Austria | LightGBM | yes |
| Belgium | LightGBM | yes |
| Bulgaria | LightGBM | yes |
| Switzerland | LightGBM | yes |
| Czechia | LightGBM | yes |
| Germany–Luxembourg | LightGBM | yes |
| Denmark West (DK1) | LightGBM | yes |
| Denmark East (DK2) | LightGBM | yes |
| Estonia | LightGBM | yes |
| Spain | LightGBM | yes |
| Finland | LightGBM | yes |
| France | LightGBM | yes |
| Greece | LightGBM | yes |
| Croatia | LightGBM | yes |
| Hungary | LightGBM | yes |
| Ireland (SEM) | LightGBM | yes |
| Italy North | LightGBM | yes |
| Lithuania | LightGBM | yes |
| Latvia | LightGBM | yes |
| Netherlands | LightGBM | yes |
| Norway NO1 | LightGBM | yes |
| Norway NO2 | LightGBM | yes |
| Poland | LightGBM | yes |
| Portugal | LightGBM | yes |
| Romania | LightGBM | yes |
| Sweden SE1 | LightGBM | yes |
| Sweden SE2 | LightGBM | yes |
| Sweden SE3 | LightGBM | yes |
| Sweden SE4 | LightGBM | yes |
| Slovenia | LightGBM | yes |
| Slovakia | LightGBM | yes |
02 — stack
Primary stack curves
Next-day path on the primary bidding zone only. (Germany–Luxembourg)
00 — baselineSeasonal naive (168h)
Weekly copy — hard industry floor.
€164.1
00 — baseline
Seasonal naive (168h)
Weekly copy — hard industry floor.
€164.1
01 — baselineHour-of-week mean
Empirical (weekday × hour) profile.
€107.7
01 — baseline
Hour-of-week mean
Empirical (weekday × hour) profile.
€107.7
02 — primaryPrimary modelLightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direct multi-horizon trees — primary multi-zone scorer.
€153.0
02 — primaryPrimary model
LightGBM (multi-horizon)
Direct multi-horizon trees — primary multi-zone scorer.
€153.0
03 — uncertaintyLightGBM quantiles (P10–P90)
P10 / P50 / P90 bands on the primary zone.
€149.2
03 — uncertainty
LightGBM quantiles (P10–P90)
P10 / P50 / P90 bands on the primary zone.
€149.2
04 — classicalSARIMAX
Seasonal ARIMA core on the primary zone.
€155.9
04 — classical
SARIMAX
Seasonal ARIMA core on the primary zone.
€155.9
Research / portfolio demo only. Not trading advice. Prices via ENTSO-E Transparency (day-ahead).